COMP SHOP · 2026-05-22 Edition I · consultance.ai

Nine
Hundred
Billion.

Anthropic just printed a $900B pre-money. OpenAI sits at $852B. Mistral, Cohere and Reflection undercut both labs by roughly ten times. Drag the multiple. Watch the comp shop reopen IPO pricing.

Drag the multiple ↓
Anthropic
$900B

Pre-money on a $30B round led by Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia, Altimeter. From $380B in Feb 2026.

↑ 2.37× in 90 days · ProactiveInvestors May 2026
OpenAI
$852B

Most recent secondary mark. Microsoft commercial partnership remains the anchor. Codex drives Q1 growth.

Burn ~$14B/yr · PYMNTS May 2026
01 //

Fundamentals

side by side
Metric Anthropic OpenAI Source
Pre-money mark$900B$852BPYMNTS May 2026
Last round size$30B~$40BRound disclosures
Q1 2026 revenue~$4.7B~$5.7BGuruFocus May 2026
NTM revenue (est)~$22B~$26BQ1 × 4 + growth
Annual burn~$5B est$14BGAI Insights
Headline EV / NTM~41×~33×Calculated
Burn-adjusted~42×~38×EV + burn × 3 / NTM
02 //

Reprice the comp

drag the multiple
25×
Anthropic −39%
$550B
vs $900B current mark
OpenAI −24%
$650B
vs $852B current mark
Read at this multiple

At 25× EV/NTM both labs price below their current secondary mark.

03 //

The derail thesis

CNBC May 20
  1. If cheap-AI takes 30% of enterprise spend by FY27, NTM growth compresses 15-25%. The headline marks bake in a duration premium that snaps when challengers ship.
  2. Burn-adjusted multiples blow out faster for the lab that burns more cash. That is OpenAI at $14B/yr. Anthropic's compute-per-dollar advantage closes the gap on the same compression scenario.
  3. Bear-case IPO at 15× burn-adjusted NTM: Anthropic ~$330B, OpenAI ~$390B. That is the comp shop opening on day one of pricing.
04 //

Source tape

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